Cause and Effect: Growing Trend of Passing in the NFL

It is no secret the NFL teams are starting to rely on the pass more frequently. In a league that used to pride itself on its hard-nosed power running backs, the quarterbacks and highly skilled receivers are starting to take center stage with incredible success. One of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL, the New Orleans Saints, defeated another team that isn’t afraid to throw the ball, the Indianapolis Colts in the Super Bowl this year. Don’t get me wrong, there are some teams who still pride themselves in the rushing game, teams like Carolina Panthers or the Tennessee Titans, but neither of those teams made the playoffs this year.
I believe there are a number of reasons as to why the NFL is evolving into a pass first league. First being that the Quarterbacks are more skilled and are able to avoid pressure longer than they used to be able to, as well as there are more mediocre to better quarterbacks across the league. Of the top 10 leaders in passing yards, half of them are potential Hall of Famers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, and Ben Roethlisberger. Off the field issues aside, I don’t think there is a team in the league that wouldn’t want one of these guys under center.
Secondly I believe that run defenses are getting stingier league wide due to growing athleticism across the defensive line, and among the linebacker core. Defensive ends are now running low 4’s in the 40 yard dash allowing them to turn the corner better and stop run plays before they start. Julius Peppers, one of the best Defensive End’s in the league recorded a 4.63 second 40. (Wikipedia) That’s blistering fast for a 290 pound defensive lineman. Linebackers also are becoming faster, allowing them to seal up holes and cover the flat a lot better. Patrick Willis a Linebacker for the San Francisco 49ers recorded 113 tackles in 2009, and ran a 4.37 second 40 yard dash, that used to be unheard of for even running backs. (Pro Football Reference)
Stats will also back up the fact that teams are starting to pass more often in the NFL. The Philadelphia Eagles passed the ball 538 times in 1989 compared to the 540 rushes that year. In 2009, it was 553-384 passing to rushing. This proves my point substantially.(Pro Football Reference PhiEagles) The 1989 New Orleans Saints were 9-7 and passed the ball 461 times and rushed it 502 times, while the 2009 Super Bowl Champion Saints were 544-468 passing to rushing. Now days you need to pass efficiently to have success. (NOSaints) Ben Roethlisberger led the Pittsburgh Steelers with 506 attempts with 4328 yards passing in 2009 compared to Hall of Fame QB Terry Bradshaw’s 472 attempts and 3724 yards.(PitSteelers)
I’m not the only one that feels this way either, Steve Sailer said in his January 22nd, 2010 blog entitled “NFL 2009: The Year only Passing Mattered” “So, passing has been more correlated with winning than running for each of the last eight seasons, but 2009 was definitely the Year of the Quarterback. I found myself writing a lot about NFL quarterbacks in 2009, so at least I was responding to a real phenomenon.”(Sailer Para 5) He even included a table showing the correlation between passing and wins.
It’s a trend that is here to stay I am afraid. With all of the success of the pass in today’s game, I think we are going to start seeing more teams turn to the pass. Pass heavy teams have been in the Super Bowl the last 2 years, Saints versus Colts last year and Steelers versus Cardinals the year before. In order to succeed in this league, you need to have a competent passing game.